31/12. Post-Tsunami rebuilding - Commentaries

Project: New Mobility Agenda - Post-Tsunami rebuilding

Thought-provoking responses from colleagues in Scotland, Australia, and Florida help to our call of 29 December (see below) provide further insight into problems, choices (seen and unseen) and eventual solutions in the face of this natural catastrophe.

****************************************************************
Original Message 1:
From: michaelm@myoffice.net.au [mailto:michaelm@myoffice.net.au]
Sent: Friday, December 31, 2004 2:43 AM
To: worldtransport@yahoogroups.com;
Subject: RE: [New Mobility/WorldTransport Forum] Post-Tsunami rebuilding

Well put Dave ..!

A similar story applies to use of the inherent efficiency of rail where relatively very high levels of efficiency in terms of load/energy/fuel ratios can be achieved with much lighter engines and rolling stock than the heavy weight "unsustainable" equipment developed in the "west".

[Like your "coal" trains, we used to have "water trains" that carried water to replenish the tanks along the longer haul lines so that the "real" trains did not have to carry so much weight!]

For example, one can imagine a freight/passenger system based on light and more frequent "eco+people-friendly" trains similar to sugar cane trains (ours use a small diesel engine but could be any available fuel e.g. bio-fuel) on a much narrower gauge and much lighter track and bed (i.e. track and bed is related to and depends on weight loading per wheel).

This image suggests the benefits of rail for loads heavier than can be carried on bicycles (see Dave's email) ... especially in relatively flat coastal country which also looks as if it is of a low load carrying geology.

However, the problem of emergency assistance is well described by our friend from Florida DoT in that the emphasis will be on restoring the previous situation ASAP rather than considering other options including whether it might be "improved" by utilising a move to 'more sustainable" transport solutions.

But the destruction and removal and non-replacement of damaged freeways after earthquakes provides a good example of not simply replacing the previous situation although there are probably more rail tracks than roads not replaced ...!

So the "story" suggests yet another example of an inability to get off the car/road/truck/bus dependency "train" ... even when catastrophic situations AND low cost, high efficiency solutions create an opportunity to do so.

The fact that the authorities are now relying increasingly on helicopters (eg several being sent by air at vast expense in an Antonov freighter from Australia) suggests that cost is NOT an issue given the enormous social pressure.

However as others have pointed out, this catastrophe is relatively insignificant when compared to the ANNUAL global road toll ...

Solutions and suggestions?

One suggestion to raise awareness of the transport and land use links (in this case, traditional links to the sea in low lying coastal areas) sounds totally unsympathetic, almost inhuman and potentially politically risky but if it is any of these, then the reasons why must be addressed. It is realistic and must not be forgotten. The comparison with the annual global road toll extended if necessary to include victims of air pollution etc must be emphasised and "aid" to address it contrasted. Have we become too complacent and accepting of the annual road toll such that only
catastrophes make news and "sustainable" modes of transport are ignored or forgotten? Should the areas and infrastructure damaged be "restored" or should other strategies be considered too?

The second is to emphasise that some transport systems are inherently better than others and that four in particular stand out.

1. walking
2. cycling and other HPV modes
3. rail modes with emphasis on light rather than heavy "efficiency"
4. boats (or traditional "low tech" methods) for moving heavy loads

I would argue that these are the "sustainable modes". They emphasise localness, self-sufficiency and appropriateness. Are these some indicators
of sustainability? Perhaps. They reduce the emphasis on economic efficiency and bulk, mass, fast or "just in time" travel for goods and/or passengers in favour of "sustainable efficiency" and "appropriate technology" and "localness" ... in the sense that for a trip of up to 1-5kms walking is healthy, and cycling or HPV travel is appropriate, whereas a car is neither esp when the load carrying capacity and fuel/cost efficiency of bicycles and HPVs is taken into account!

Somewhere, sometime, we have to take into account the unsustainability of cheap air travel and global freight networks that pass on or avoid externality costs while excluding the vast proportion of the global population for the benefit of a very small proportion. [In this sense, it seems the dependency on the cheap global tourism economy could or should be considered a major "cause" of the tsunami catastrophe.]

We have to be careful not to lose track of the inherent efficiency and appropriateness in a "sustainable" sense of these four "sustainable" modes in seeking to emphasise "new" mobility.

Unfortunately, the idea of walking or cycling rather than using a car is too easily replaced by use of a bus or truck (or helicopters and other "new" VTOL aircraft!) ... rather than fixed (preferably light) rail modes ... repeating the error of dependency, flexibility and individual travel time preferences which disguise the inappropriateness and danger and unsustainability of modes that encourage faster travel and other-than-localness ... ie more longer, faster and heavier trips ... whether for moving freight or passengers.

The bigger problem here is that the hegemony of high speed motorized transport dependency is so ingrained in "the west" that any suggestions that might be worth considering can appear patronising, paternalistic and inappropriate ... and rightly so! We don't set a good example!

However, where there is an opportunity to demonstrate appropriate technology in a (more) sustainable mode ie if it provides an appropriate and sustainable solution to the real 'local' needs, then taking that opportunity will add the weight of evidence to the argument that the west is profligate with energy, wealth and space per capita.

As with many of these decisions, local democracy suggests that the decisions should be taken by the locals rather than be made by others under pressure of assistance to restore the previous situation and this pressure includes reluctance to refuse foreigners giving specific types of aid.

The lessons about "appropriate and sustainable technology" in transport and travel eg as learned in/from China and Vietnam with heavy load carrying bicycles and HPVs and walking should not be allowed to be forgotten or ignored by proponents of "new" modes of travel if "sustainability" is an issue. The lessons apply in urban as well as rural and natural settings, and as Dave points out, in all sorts of conditions, from long wars to sudden catastrophes.

Whether we in the west can bother to make the effort is quite another issue!

Michael Yeates
Brisbane, Australia

****************************************************************
Original Message 2:
-----------------
From: Tramsol@aol.com
Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 14:27:23 EST
To: WorldTransport@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [New Mobility/WorldTransport Forum] Post-Tsunami rebuilding


A most telling feature of news coverage immediately post impact was the speed and coverage in restoration of transport achieved by the humble bicycle, almost as soon as the water had subsided to axle depth, bicycles were on the streets ferrying supplies and people, and apart from their limitations on load carrying for mass relief, in a coordinated group the final distribution of essential supplies like water, can be achieved without the delay of having to clear every road for motor vehicles, repair bridges, and get fuel supplies in place.

Those organising the aid might note that a bicycle - especially the Phoenix/Flying Pidgeon/Dutch roadster with substantial load carrying racks, has geometry which allows riding with no tyres, backpedal brakes allow riding with near-round wheels, and bikes don't need fuel bunkerage and fuel supply taking valuable space on incoming transport (nice analogy here with the far North Highland line where steam trains required a further steam train hauling the coal to replenish the stock of coal at the end of the line to put provide the fuel for the return trip, including taking coal for the engine that hauled the coal up for the engines...). Maybe some lessons to learn here also from Vietnam - where 50,000 Tons of supplies were shipped down from Hanoi to Da Nang on bicycles, with the riders walking down guiding their bikes with bamboo extensions to saddle and handlebars, and each bike carrying roughly 250Kg of supplies, along jungle trails, and going around on very basic temporary structures where bridges and roads had been destroyed by the US military who could not conceve that such a vast supply chain could work without large trucks and roads. Once unloaded the bamboo extensions were detached and the bikes returned to being ridden machines for the return trip.

If the relief is to get to the people then the bicycle has a major role in reaching every remote location where there are no roads available.

Dave Holladay
Transportation Management Solutions
6 Woodlands Terrace
Glasgow G3 6DH

0141 332 4733 Phone
07 710 535 404 Mobile

***************************************************************

Original Message 3-----
From: tara.bartee@dot.state.fl.us
Sent: Wednesday, December 29, 2004 4:15 PM
To: WorldTransport@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Post-Tsunami rebuilding - the role of sustainable mobility proponents

Eric;

You are correct that it will be incredibly difficult to get heard.

I took part in the disaster response in Florida to our four hurricanes this year. I can attest that the hectic nature of response makes it very difficult to deal with the simplest of issues, much less real changes in infrastructure. The disparity in resources makes me think that whatever difficulties we had here are absolutely nothing compared to those in the path of the tsunami.

The pressure to get things going again as fast as possible will be incredible. It will be essential to get transportation going first, or the rest of the relief won't be able get through. Time to rethink HOW things will be rebuilt will be an unbelievable luxury. What gets accomplished in the initial response has a serious impact on what can be accomplished in the ongoing recovery stage. The existing system will have to be replaced, perhaps with incremental improvements.

A better strategy might be to monitor the response for sustainability issues. Afterwards, make cogent, specific recommendations to international disaster response and recovery organizations on planning in advance to correct "mistakes" when a disaster presents an "opportunity". For
example, in much of the flood prone US, property owners are advised that in the next "event" they will not get federal disaster assistance to rebuild in the flood plain. Such aid will be available only for relocation and building anew on higher ground. Thus incremental restructuring occurs.

URL to an article about some of the advance planning we do in Florida.
http://www.govpro.com/ASP/ViewArticle.asp?strArticleId=104275

And this takes you to some planning for the next disaster.
http://www.floridadisaster.org/recovery/

This interesting URL lists numerous international disaster relief efforts.
http://wwww.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf/vLND?OpenView&Start=1
and their home page looks interesting as well
http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf


Tara Bartee
Public Transit Office FDOT
Voice 850-414-4520
FAX 850-414-4508
E-Mail tara.bartee@dot.state.fl.us


*********************************************************
Wednesday, December 29, 2004, Paris, France, Europe

Dear Friends and Colleagues,

In the wake of the current tragic events in the regions affected by Tsunami, and once the terrible immediate health and basic needs of these areas and their people have started to be met, it is going to be time to take a number of decisions about rebuilding in all those impacted areas. And at the center of this rebuilding will be the transportation sector. Since this is the case, and since it opens up some unique opportunities in terms of sustainability, I invite us to think about it together.

My question to you all here is: might this be a unique opportunity for us to make the voice of sustainable transportation and social justice heard once and for all as it should be? There are at least three things about this approach that recommend it strongly in the immediate situation and the after-math. First, sustainability proponents are used to figuring out how to get the most mileage, the most sustainable mobility bang per buck, out of the infrastructure and related realties and constraints before them. Second, they are accustomed to dealing with the physical mobility issues and needs in a far more resource and environmentally efficient manner. And third, the sustainability approach to defining and meeting the needs of people is based on an active citizenry, surely a precondition of the rapid progress which is needed at this time. So for all these reasons, the sustainability approach should be at the center of the transport policy and practice debate and decisions that must now follow.

Here’s our bottom line: The proponents of sustainable development now have a unique opportunity to influence transportation decisions and the specific hands-on programs and measure that follow, not only in the affected tragic regions but also world wide – since anything of real value that is accomplished there is going to gain world wide attention.

But are we as yet geared up really to make our voices heard at this time? It is my view that despite the growing body of expertise and accomplishment, the proponents of sustainable transportation or new mobility are still very much a minority and until now not able to get in there and really change the problematique and the practices when it comes to investing money and making the big decisions which shape the system.

In this context, I would like to propose here that those of you who have not as yet had an opportunity to look over our proposal for sustainable transportation as a “Third Voice” in the coming high profile international project, might wish to check out the following latest draft of the proposal in process – with a view to seeing if anything here can be used or built on to create the higher profile ‘voice’ that is going to be needed in the months and several years immediately ahead to make the wise decisions that are going to be essential if the rebuilding efforts are to be accomplished with maximum speed and best overall fit into the communities and people directly affected.

To conclude: It may well be that my proposal that follows here is not the best way for us to join voices to see what can be done now to influence these important decisions that are going to be make in our beloved sector. No problem. Toss it out the window, and come in here with your suggestions. The issues are so very important, the opportunity so unique, and the decision window likely to be open for such a short period, that we really need to seize this opportunity to be every bit as smart and responsible as we can be.

I hope that this will set off better thoughts and a course of action that mobilizes as many of us as possible.

Eric Britton

30/12. Hamid Sardar writes in support of Loeb program application

Program: The Commons

I received today the following fascinating letter with supporting background that I had requested from one Hamid Sardar, whom I have recently nominated for a Loeb Fellowship (see entry of Dec. 15, 2004), which I share with you with pleasure.

Hamid Sardar
Axis-Mundi Foundation
2 rue Jargonnant
1211 Geneva 6, Switzerland

Eric Britton
EcoPlan International
8/10 rue Joseph Bara
75006 Paris, France

29/12/04

Dear Eric,

Here is a summary of the experiences that have led me to apply formally for the Loeb Fellowship Program for which you have so kindly nominated me. I think it could be an important means with which to further our vision of a new kind of foundation. But of course, the whole thing really came about as an accident, a conspiracy of fate.

* * *

Last summer, a group of friends and I decided to go to Tibet. Our destination was a sacred mountain called Kailash – considered by ancient Buddhist sages to be the ‘center of the world’.

The way to the sacred mountain passed through a wild valley in Nepal, where we hoped to dodge Maoist insurgents and acclimatise ourselves before reaching the Tibetan plateau. All of us were approaching some sort of crisis – either a career change, the loss of a spouse or simply the existential despair of approaching middle-life. During this walkabout, we strangely began to experience our personal losses as liberation.

On the pilgrim’s trail our pre-occupations quickly dissolved into thin air. We were impressed by the warmth and bravery of our Tibetan companions, who put their lives in danger to save ours during a terrible ordeal in a mountain blizzard. Having lost the main trail, we crossed into Tibet using an ancient salt-trading route, where we were promptly arrested by the Chinese police for having entered the ‘Motherland using a ‘bandit’s trail’.

We were confined to a squalid garrison town - an eyesore in an otherwise pristine Tibetan environment. While we waited to pay the inevitable fine, we contemplated the destruction of an entire Tibetan aesthetic by means of concrete and plastic. Long rows of karaoke brothels and shops covered in white glazed tiles and blue-tinted windows had now replaced the intricate wooden architecture of this traditional Tibetan village, giving one the impression of sitting in a gigantic bathroom.

During our brief detention, my companions and I came to realize the vital relationship that exists between unhealthy living environment and the lack of human dignity - true in Tibet as it is in many ghettos across the United States and Europe.

With a sense of relief, we were finally allowed to continue our pilgrimage to the sacred mountain. During our circumambulation, we looked back onto our experience and pondered the uncertain future of Tibet and other pristine environments. As the pace of the consumer revolution and globalisation accelerates throughout the world, many traditional cultures and their diverse ways of life, interpretations of existence, history and knowledge of natural world, are fast disappearing. People are being forced out of their native homelands and their pristine habitats destroyed in the name of economic development. Was there a way in which we could contribute to a more just and sustainable world?

To give substance to our vision, a businessman travelling in our group put down some seed money to create a foundation in Switzerland – which we named the Axis Mundi Foundation - in honour of the sacred mountain.

Outwardly, we decided that the foundation’s mission would be to preserve the wisdom of indigenous cultures and to make them accessible and meaningful to the modern world. Inwardly, it was to create a network of effective intercultural leaders; a fleet of enlightened cross-cultural warriors, who could slip quietly back into the grid of society, across borders, professions and cultures, to bring awareness where it often lacks.

The vision and seed money was the easy part. Neither of us had any real experience running a foundation or raising funds. I, for one, was a doctoral graduate of Sanskrit and Tibetan studies, who had turned into an explorer and ethnographic film maker.

Born into a family of power and influence in Iran under the Shah, I was pushed into exile in Europe at the age of 12, where I grew up as a teenager – educated by Catholic nuns at Marymount, I had then obtained an International Baccalaureate at the Ecole Bilingue in Paris.

I went to Tufts University to earn a Bachelor’s degree in history, where I developed a keen extra-curricular interest in the martial arts and Zen Buddhism. During this period, I had a series of vivid dreams, in which I encountered an old Tibetan warrior riding a horse, who pointed to a snow-mountain saying, “Go!”

These dreams always arrived at dawn and were so powerful that, for weeks after, I could immediately transport myself back into the dreamscape by closing my eyes. Heeding their message, I enrolled in a semester of study abroad to go live with Tibetan refugees in Nepal and India. There, I was fortunate to meet the Dalai Lama and study with the first generation of Tibetan masters who escaped after the Chinese occupation.

Among them was an old lama, the tutor to the last Tibetan regent (the one who discovered the 14th Dalai Lama). He recognized me as a reincarnation of a past Tibetan master - although I had no recollection of any past lives - and initiated me into many esoteric teachings. It was at his mountain retreat that I shed my first cool tears and tasted the nectar of compassion and crazy-wisdom. Under his tutelage, I travelled to many sacred caves, where I lived for months in the company of leopards and deer, sometimes leaving solid food and nourishing myself on the essence of plants and flowers.

In 1990, to formalize my study of Eastern philosophy, I went to Harvard to gain a Master’s and then a Ph.D. degree in Sanskrit and Tibetan studies. During the following decade, I would often return to Nepal and Tibet in the summer, making money as a mountain guide, completing my graduate fieldwork while continuing to digest the vast wisdom and compassion of my root master and many others.

Upon completion of my Ph.D, I started working as an Academic Director for the School for International Training (SIT), in Brattleboro, Vermont. They sent me to Nepal to run their study abroad program in Kathmandu. The SIT program was originally founded in 1932, under the name of the U.S. Experiment in International Living. The visionary brainchild of Donald Watt, it was the first American institution to advocate the value of study abroad programs. Wars happened, it was believed, due to the lack of empathy and compassion for the other. What better remedy, than to send a bunch of naïve American college students across the planet to live in cow sheds, to learn strange languages and to taste strange foods. Between the two wars, the U.S. Experiment sent the first batch of American students to study in Switzerland, Germany and France. In 1961, John F. Kennedy contracted the U.S. Experiment to train the first Peace Corps volunteers.

In 1999, I came full circle, now working as the Director of the very program which had changed my life when I enrolled in it twelve years earlier. In 2000, after running the program in Nepal, I was asked to go and pioneer the program in Outer Mongolia - a task not without its peculiar challenges.

Whilst others came to Mongolia to build roads, mines and civil societies, I had the dubious mission of making nomads out of American students and to facilitate their apprenticeship to shamans and horse whisperers. The requirements to participate in this program were basically two: to write well and the willingness to ride long distances on horses, camels and reindeers - and if necessary to eat them.

By riding these three species of animals I led my students into the heart of Mongolia’s rugged interior to experience a different facet of Mongolia’s nomadic culture, challenging them to understand the difficulties this isolated nation faces as it balances economic development with the protection of its indigenous cultures and natural resources. Development is as mysterious as inevitable. In the process some people lose their souls, while others, strangely, seem to find theirs. Many of my students, enriched by this rigorous integration of academic study and field experience, ended up returning to Mongolia after obtaining various grants and fellowships in order to continue working with the nomad communities.

In 2003, I took a sabbatical leave, during which I ended up on the sacred mountain in Tibet, the outcome of which was an entirely new vision, that of creating a kind of foundation that has never existed before. One that is inspired by the wisdom and compassion of my Tibetan masters and my career in cross-cultural education - the art of transforming adversity into friendship, of using unconventional and maverick approaches to convert the guilt and apathy of governments and corporations into support for environmental conservation, social justice and sustainable development – basically, to generate compassion among the unconverted and those who don’t give a damn.

In our first year, the Axis Mundi Foundation created a scheme with which we convinced the association of Nepalese tour operators, that it would be in their own long term interests to provide an extra days salary to all porters, so they would clean up the trash left at holy mountain. To combat deforestation, we donated more than 500 fuel-efficient wood burning stoves to the monks and inhabitants of a Tibetan monastery on a deforested slope near Mount Everest, with the condition that they plant ten trees for every stove.

Recently, I returned to Mongolia, to produce a documentary film that brought attention to the plight of a small group of Tsaatan reindeer herding nomads being pushed out of their ancestral forest.

Unlike other reindeer breeding cultures, the Tsaatan do not traditionally kill their reindeer for meat. They depend on reindeer for milk products and to ride to hunt for food and furs. But today their forest is becoming increasingly empty as commercial hunters enter the taiga to supply the traditional Chinese medicine market with bear paws, deer tails and musk pods. With the decreasing game many Tsaatan have now reluctantly started to kill and eat their reindeer. To make things worst, the cash-starved Mongol government has now started to sell the mining and hunting concessions to the Tsaatan’s ancestral forest.

Wildlife conservationists, however, do not consider this forest to be a primary concern because it is devoid of rare and exotic species. It is home to moose, elk and brown bear, of which there are plenty of running around in North America. The point, which everyone seems to miss here, is that the conservation of mundane species is closely related to the survival of an exotic and endangered culture.

The plight of the Tsaatan, for example, is just one area where the foundation wants to develop a unique approach to solving problems; of creating a trust fund to buy off the mining and hunting concessions and turning them back to the indigenous people, and thus turning the greed of developing nations into an ally of conservation and cultural preservation.

Spending a year in East Coast as a Loeb fellow, I want to take stock of the lessons learned over these years and to explore their applications for education in the United States. I want to use the faculties and resources at Harvard, MIT and in Washington D.C. to develop my skills in running a foundation, and to learn to raise the money necessary to fuel its vision. Most importantly, I welcome the opportunity to contribute my experience and knowledge to a group of exceptional colleagues working in the field of environmental conservation and cross-cultural education. To turn this vision into experience, I want to devise unique study abroad programs that can go beyond the traditional college semester abroad vacation and the Peace Corps experience – a type of program that is ready to take certain risks within the context of experiential education. Risks that can create the kind of compassion and vision necessary for students in the United States to start playing a role in promoting peace and sustainable growth in our increasingly complex world.

May it be auspicious!

Hamid Sardar

PS. You may wish to have a look at a recent article of mine that appeared in National Geographic covering some of my recent work with the "Reindeer People" in Mongolia
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/. I hope that you find some interest in the photos as well (I think the story they tell is probably more important than my text.)

29/12. HIGHEST PRIORITY: Post-Tsunami rebuilding - the role of sustainable mobility proponents

Program: New Mobility Agenda
Note: click title above for support document

Dear World Wide Friends and Colleagues,

In the wake of the current tragic events in the regions affected by Tsunami, and once the terrible immediate health and basic needs of these areas and their people have started to be met, it is going to be time to take a number of decisions about rebuilding in all those impacted areas. And at the center of this rebuilding will be the transportation sector. Since this is the case, and since it opens up some unique opportunities in terms of sustainability, I invite us to think about it together.

My question to you all here is: might this be a unique opportunity for us to make the voice of sustainable transportation and social justice heard once and for all as it should be? There are at least three things about this approach that recommend it strongly in the immediate situation and the after-math. First, sustainability proponents are used to figuring out how to get the most mileage, the most sustainable mobility bang per buck, out of the infrastructure and related realties and constraints before them. Second, they are accustomed to dealing with the physical mobility issues and needs in a far more resource and environmentally efficient manner. And third, the sustainability approach to defining and meeting the needs of people is based on an active citizenry, surely a precondition of the rapid progress which is needed at this time. So for all these reasons, the sustainability approach should be at the center of the transport policy and practice debate and decisions that must now follow.

Here’s our bottom line: The proponents of sustainable development now have a unique opportunity to influence transportation decisions and the specific hands-on programs and measure that follow, not only in the affected tragic regions but also world wide – since anything of real value that is accomplished there is going to gain world wide attention.

But are we as yet geared up really to make our voices heard at this time? It is my view that despite the growing body of expertise and accomplishment, the proponents of sustainable transportation or new mobility are still very much a minority and until now not able to get in there and really change the problematique and the practices when it comes to investing money and making the big decisions which shape the system.

In this context, I would like to propose here that those of you who have not as yet had an opportunity to look over our proposal for sustainable transportation as a “Third Voice” in the coming high profile international project, might wish to check out the latest draft of the proposal in process at http://www.ecoplan.org/library/Emergency-initiative.pdf – with a view to seeing if anything here can be used or built on to create the higher profile ‘voice’ that is going to be needed in the months and several years immediately ahead to make the wise decisions that are going to be essential if the rebuilding efforts are to be accomplished with maximum speed and best overall fit into the communities and people directly affected.

To conclude: It may well be that my proposal that follows here is not the best way for us to join voices to see what can be done now to influence these important decisions that are going to be make in our beloved sector. No problem. Toss it out the window, and come in here with your suggestions. The issues are so very important, the opportunity so unique, and the decision window likely to be open for such a short period, that we really need to seize this opportunity to be every bit as smart and responsible as we can be.

I hope that this will set off better thoughts and a course of action that mobilizes as many of us as possible.

Eric Britton

28/12. The Future Isn't What It Used To Be: Changing Trends And Their Implications For Transport Planning

Source/Program: New Mobility Agenda

Dear Colleagues,

I'm writing to let you know about our latest draft publication, "The Future Isn't What It Used To Be: Changing Trends And Their Implications For Transport Planning" (http://www.vtpi.org/future.pdf

This paper examines various demographic, economic and market trends that affect travel demand, and their implications for transport planning during the next century. During Twentieth Century per capita motor vehicle travel demand increased by an order of magnitude. Many of the factors that caused this growth have peaked in developed countries and are likely to decline. This indicates that future transport demand will be increasingly diverse. Transport planning can reflect these shifts by reducing emphasis on automobile travel and increasing support for alternative modes and smart growth development patterns.I would appreciate your feedback.

Please let me know if you find any errors or omissions, or if you have any other ideas of factors that affect past and future travel demand. Also, please let me know if you know a source of good time-series shipping cost data, such as the real cost of transporting a ton of freight from New York to London or San Francisco for each decade from 1900 to 2000.

Sincerely,Todd Litman,
Director
Victoria Transport Policy Institute"Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"
1250 Rudlin StreetVictoria, BC, V8V 3R7, Canada
Phone & Fax: +1 250-360-1560
Email: litman@vtpi.org
Website: http://www.vtpi.org/

27/12. Transportation? Qualities for the future

Source/Program: New Mobility Agenda

Many of you know Peter Wiederkehr, the man who for years has been the principal force behind the ETS (Environmentally Sustainable Transportation) project of the OECD Environment Directorate, an approach which he is now hoping to extend to the developing countries as well. Two days ago he was kind enough to come over to have lunch and share his views on our nascent New Mobility 20/20 Emergency Initiative, and in the process he talked about what he viewed as the realities and forces that in fact underpin whatever it is we decide to collectively do in the transport sector or any other.

I was fascinated and impressed. So I asked Peter if he would not mind writing it down in note form, so that I could post it to our new “A day at the office” gizmo that you will find on the New Mobility Agenda site (a sort of rough compendium that attempts to seize and share some of the most interesting of the many interesting things that pass though here each day) .. to which he kindly said yes. The attached is the result of his kind efforts and I find that it is sufficiently challenging, fundamental and important that you too would want to have a look.

As you will see in his cover note to me just below, Peter welcomes comments and challenges, so let me get out of the way now and leave it now to Peter, and to you.

Eric Britton

Note: I find this particularly timely in the context of our collective attempt to see what we might do together possibly to reshape some elements of the Principal Voices program as it attempts to deal with a sector which we of course know rather well.
**************************************************

Hi Eric, Please find below the amended text for your daily log.

Thank you for challenging me and I look forward to your reaction. Please feel free to edit, if needed.

Thank you. Peter
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Dr. Peter Wiederkehr; 12, square Gabriel Fauré; 75017 Paris
Tel./fax: +33 1 46 22 03 46 ; mobile: +33 6 30 15 70 40 email: peter.wiederkehr@wanadoo.fr ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


I am taking up your challenge to write down the few ideas on what I think would be needed for the future in terms of human qualities individually as well as collectively to make the new mobility agenda work. This is very much in line with what we had kept in mind in the EST project, where we continuously insisted in our discussions and proposals to preserve a human face for the future of transportation and not just the realization of a perfect and smoothly functioning system, but in fact a complex mechanically organised mobility life.

What I am going to develop is neither original nor revolutionary, as it is inspired from many thinkers present and past, based on my cultural, educational and ethical background - a very personal synopsis of a few decades of errors and struggle with life and destiny.

Of course, this shouldn’t be understood and is clearly not my intention that the following ideas should take the form of any sort of declaration of principles or societal goals (we have seen the many of them, which had more than doubtful impacts and primarily remained paper with little if at all relevance of the day-to-day behaviour and actions), quite the contrary, I rather think that this could be a starting point of a discussion for rethinking future needs, our approaches towards them and how we could apply it to influence that mobility agenda.

Before I will develop these ideas, let me make a preliminary remark on the premises that I am starting from, as I think this is important, since the non-articulation of these premises is one of the main sources of misunderstanding among people. If we would be aware of this fact, we could avoid many conflicts and increase understanding and tolerance.

To the premises: I think a modern and future oriented view of the world has to get rid of some old-fashioned, outdated and false concepts, in particular concerning the very nature of us as human beings. We ought to understand and take into account that, despite any other declarations from powerful institutions, the human being is a threefold entity that is simultaneously physical (the body), emotional (the soul) and spiritual (the mind). There are numerous facts that underpin this statement and even the latest research proves this, although largely ignored or wrongly communicated in the mainstream media channels (yet, there are some films that project these findings with a surprisingly clear message).

Thus, I believe that we are neither only a physical body with its basic needs, capacities and limits, nor an urge-driven greedy beast that so many commercials are trying to make us believe nor an invisible spirit hovering over and above the lowlands of darkness and misery, but we, as human beings, are all the three-in-one, interacting, interfering and influencing one another. Recognising this fact of a threefold entity with different requirements and capacities for each of his parts would bring clarity in how we think, talk and act, and thus help to understand of what is going on in the world with us, the persons surrounding us, and possibly our own destiny and those of these people and our time. This view of the human being as a both spiritual and physical entity has serious consequences on what we are going to project, propose and actually do and how we do it, as each part claims its recognition and thus, the need for our self to reconcile them by conscious action.

Our approaches will entirely depend on these premises:

1) If for instance we are convinced that the human being is primarily a physical entity with some emotional annex then we look for maximizing and facilitating the fulfillment of the physical needs, primarily through technological means to make life easier and people “happier” (yet many surveys showed that children of lower social classes experience the feeling of happiness more often than children of wealthier classes – how comes? and what was it again that triggered the student revolt in the late sixties?).

2) If we are of the opinion that the human being is basically influenced or even driven by emotional factors than the emphasis is put on trying to comfort people by controlling the emotional sphere and influence it accordingly through different stimuli to achieve a high level of pleasure and so- called satisfaction (e.g. by providing specific devices to deliver all kinds of drugs, painkillers, psycho-pharmaceuticals and tranquillizers of all kinds aimed at mitigating the impacts of the more than visible ugly face of modern life and the society at large.

3) If the prevailing view is that this is all wrong and the human being is primarily a spiritual entity incarnated in a body (there are still some parts of the world that share this conviction), the physical body is considered just a painful appendix or annoying hindrance to the actions and requirements of the mind and consequently, the body and soul will have to be ignored and subjected to the toughest constraints and sufferings so that it is completely subordinated to the mind. This extreme representation will lead to ignorance of our senses and neglect of the wonderful physical world, and ultimately ending in degradation and cultural decay.

Thus, it is obvious that these different views of the world have much influence on our behaviour and are supported, underpinned and projected by the many of proponents in each category with specialists and authorities (who in many circumstance know more than their scholars) that exercise their power and influence with strong voices and impressive means. Yet, I don’t think that the problem is primarily in these single-sided views rather than using it in an unconscious way in their undertakings. I think that if people would be aware of this and recognised it when dealing and interacting with each other, it would help resolve many problems and completely blocked situations. Thus, we might be well advised to observe this in our in individual and collective endeavors.

It is therefore my conviction that the view of us as human being as a threefold entity is capable of providing more balanced approaches and solutions of our problems (at least as a possibility), but has of course its own difficulties and challenges, as this entity is living and the interactions are dynamic; that means, they change over the time of the day, the months and years of our life; they might have fundamentally changed after several decades (the physical appearance provides testimony of the actions exercised upon it). Of course, this has broader ramifications on the view of the world, its course, etc. which would have to be discussed, but go beyond the scope of these initial comments.

On the basis of the considerations so far, let’s look at some of the human qualities desperately needed and have the power of making progress towards a more human society and world.

Qualities that would be a pre-requisite for making real progress in any undertaking may include: showing interest and understanding; being concerned, showing compassion and empathy for people and life in general, being committed and reliable; trustworthy and truthful; defend individual freedom and diversity of opinions, but also show humor and tolerance, and above all be patient and endure on action taken, and finally, being aware and raise self-consciousness.

Note that to all of these qualities would make sense for doing good business, figure in almost all humanitarian charters, but are quite absent in the actually prevailing motives and behaviours in today’s business world. Of course, there are noticeable exceptions.

Basically, we would be looking for a fully conscious and responsibly acting individual.

This is quite in contrast to the always heard call for everything to be smaller, faster and cheaper – certainly, the individual is too complex, too slow, too expensive (thus, the attempt to replace it by machines). But the solutions have to have dimensions that we as individuals can manage (too small is not accessible either is too big; or too fast or complex exceeds our capacity to follow it with our mind and body; thus, it get’s out of our hands and finally, cheaper is an illusion, as there are enormous hidden social costs (externalities!). What will be required is the right measure, the human measure, and of course, everybody is called to determine this for himself. Lest there be no doubt: the human body is the perfect, sensitive physical apparatus that exists and we far from any understanding of its processes: striking examples of the wonders of our body are in the news almost every day.

Thus, we would need creativity, courage and endurance to implement some of the new ideas, but also tolerance, respect and civism, and finally self-organising activities to use efficiently scarce resources.

Our general ideal would be to give more than we take (if applied in general we would all gain enormously), be something for someone rather than to have it or him/her; i.e., to make a contribution to the world rather than just being a greedy, extremely clever consumer taking the resources wherever they are. What is this contribution like? What is its nature? What its magnitude? Who can do it? Who will take the lead? Who follows? It will need a lot of education and good examples; there are many, but largely unknown, ignored or belittled.

Where could we get some guidance from? Maybe from the three principles or ideals that were advocated during the French Revolution: freedom, equality, fraternity. Are they of any use or guidance in our endeavors? Maybe this is too big of a complex of issues in this initial discussion, as this would lead us into a general analysis of current society and social systems. I would prefer to develop this on another occasion. I think these ideals could be useful to have them in the back of our minds when we examine the positive potential of a future activity.

To conclude these preliminary comments with a view to our new mobility agenda:

There are striking examples that work and deliver impressive results in terms of efficient resource use, economic savings, individual gains and social benefits. Just take one example: integrated mobility services combining public transport and individual car use (I would call them PTCarPlus) or any combined transport chain management for freight. A brief review of these initiatives shows that the above mentioned qualities are key ingredients to make them work, and at first was a strong concern about the present situation and its failures and the search for new, unconventional solutions.
The personal qualities are becoming more critical as the service content of a product becomes more important. It is no longer the product and its performance that matters, the service itself is the product and thus the individual persons matter at the first place.

Most of these initiatives work a small scale, where individual qualities have a great impact, corrective measures can easily applied and problems solved. To make them work at larger scale, the group possessing these qualities has to become larger, but there might be a limit in size in order to keep it working (remember the right measure). Thus, the term is decentralization of initiatives and competences, while communicating through networking including social gatherings to exchange ideas and experience (“every meeting is a transformation” is a saying from the Indians at the Canadian West coast, north of Vancouver); and building friendship. We should certainly work on a new meeting (conference?) culture.

Such exchanges will be excellent opportunities to discuss initiatives, learn from them, create and encourage new ones that try new ways for solving problems, including those related to our ever increasing mobility demands. The experience from promising practical examples will be of great value as it will motivate people in their own endeavors. The analysis of all aspects of the initiative, in technical/scientific, social and economic terms is important, but more important is to draw conclusions from them and agree on specific actions.

In any case, it would be useful to think about mobility systems that can function at an oil price of even more than 100 dollars per barrel of oil….Don’t you think so?. Encouraging the further development of integrated mobility services is just one example to exercise our ability towards a sustainable transport future.

So far for today….

I look forward to your reaction, Eric.

Best wishes,
Peter
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Dr. Peter Wiederkehr; 12, square Gabriel Fauré; 75017 Paris
Tel./fax: +33 1 46 22 03 46 ; mobile: +33 6 30 15 70 40 email: peter.wiederkehr@wanadoo.fr ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

25/12. Principal Voices sustainability initiative - Interim report and invitation for comment

Source/Program: New Mobility Agenda

Dear Brendan, Carlos, Craig, Dave, Eric, Kirk, Mikel, Peter, Preston, Sujit, Todd, Vittal and others of you who were so kind as to get in touch with your ideas and reactions:

Thanks for those excellent words and suggestions of yours. They have struck home and have my full attention (as I hope you will see here). In the meantime, here is my next-stage though still provisional working “short” list for the proposed Principal Voices “Sustainable Transportation Invisible College” (yes, I know, awful phrase and I shall have to do better). A few quick words of introduction before we get to the list itself:

“Principal Voices”- Sustainable Transportation as a Third Voice

Who are these people? No more no less than the hundred or so individuals on this planet who in my experience are among the leading Voices of the kind of transportation that is the most important of all for out planet and our times, sustainable transportation. This approach to understanding and deciding about transportation is altogether on another plane from the older supply-oriented approach that has long been the dominant mode of thinking, policy and investment in the past, at a time when the ‘problematique’ of transportation was vastly different from that which we face today. It is the next step in a cumulative long run process of intellectual, economic, social, environmental and political maturity: the world transport policy and practice paradigm of the 21st century. If I had to turn the leading edge of transportation policy and decision making over to anyone, it would be to these people and their international colleagues, collaborators and networks in turn.

Principal Voices 2005: The immediate objective at this time is to see what we can do to create a much-needed balancing “Voice” for the transportation component of the potentially important Principal Voices project over 2005 (www.PrincipalVoices.com): thereby forming up a sort of ‘invisible college’ of knowledgeable, independent, world level proponents of sustainable transport in all its many aspects (or New Mobility if you like).

Here’s the latest cut of my working list for your comment and suggestions (see blow for further background and suggestions concerning the further development of this important list).

· A. Ables, Bangkok, Thailand
· Alan AtKisson, Stockholm, Sweden
· Ayad Altaai, Baghdad, Iraq
· Oscar Aguilar Juárez, Zapopan, Jalisco, Mexico
· Paul A. Barter, Singapore
· Denis Baupin, Paris, France
· Margaret Bell, Leeds, UK
· Reinie Biesenbach, Pretoria, South Africa
· Donald Brackenbush, Los Angeles, CA
· Christ Bradshaw, Ottawa, Canada
· Eric Bruun, Philadelphia, PA
· Enrique Calderon, Barcelona, Spain
· Sally Campbell, Eveleigh, Australia
· Carl Cederschiold, Stockholm, Sweden
· Robert Cervero, Berkeley, CA
· Phil Charles, Brisbane, Australia
· Robin Chase, Boston, MA
· Carlos Cordero Velásquez, Lima, Peru
· Al Cormier, Mississauga, Canada
· Wendell Cox, St. Louis, Mo.
· Philippe Crist, Saint Germain en Laye, France
· Ranjith de Silva, Colombo, Ceylon
· Carlos Dora, Rome, Italy
· Bernard Fautrier, Monaco
· Anwar Fazal, Kuala Lumpur, Maylasia
· Maria Josefina Figueroa, Roskilde, Denmark
· Duarte de Souza Rosa Filho, Porto Alegre, Brazil
· Brendan Finn, Singapore
· Priyanthi Fernando, Executive Secretary, International Forum for Rural Transport Development (IFRTD).
· Karl Fjellstrom, Surabaya, Indonesia
· Rossella Forenza, Potenza, Italy
· Jan Gehl, Copenhagen, Denmark
· Michael Glotz-Richter, Bremen, Germany
· Phil Goodwin, Exeter, UK
· Ingibjorg Guolaugsdottir, Reykjavik, Iceland
· Peter Hall, Berkeley, USA
· Sylvia Harms, Dubendorf, Switzerland
· Roger Higman, Friends of the Earth, London, UK
· John. Holtzclaw, Sierra Club, San Francisco, CA
· Walter Hook, Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, New York
· Nguyen Trong Thong, Hanoi, Viet Nam
· Ursula Huws, Analytica, UK
· Taiichi Inoue, Tokyo, Japan
· Virgil Ioanid, Bucarest, Romania
· Jane Jacobs, Toronto, Canada
· Jiri Jiracek, Prague, Czech Republic
· Dave Holladay, Glasgow, Scotland
· Per Homann Jespersen, Roskilde, Denmark
Sharif A Kafi, Dhaka, Bangladesh
· Richard Katzev, Portland
· Isam Kaysi, Beirut
· Fred Kent, Partners for Public Spaces, NYC
· Jeff Kenworthy, Perth, Australia
· Gadi Kfir, Tel Aviv, Israel
· Adam Kowalewski, Warsaw, Poland
· Charles Kunaka, Harare
· Stefan Langeveld, Amsterdam, Netherlands
· Agnes Lehuen, Le Vesinet, France
· Corinne Lepage, Paris, France
· Graham Lightfoot, Scariff, Ireland
· Todd Litman, Victoria, Canada
· Stefan Lorentzson, Gothenburg. Sweden
· Harun al-Rasyid Sorah Lubis, Bandung, Indonesia
· Kenneth Orski, Washington, DC
· Dojie Manahan, Quezon City, Philippines
· Naoko Matsumoto, Kanagawa, Japan　
· Suzanne May, London, UK
· Segundo Medína Hernández, Havana, Cuba
Kisan Mehta, Bombay, India
· Michael Meyer, Atlanta, GA
· Nobuo Mishima, Kyoto, Japan
· Dinesh Mohan, New Delhi, India
· Mikel Murga, Bilbao, Spain
· Peter Newman, Sydney, Australia
· Simon Norton, Cambridge, UK
· Margaret O'Mahony, Dublin, Ireland
· Richard Ongjerth, Budapest, Hungary
· Carlos F. Pardo, Bogota, Colombia
· Sujit Patwardhan, Pune, India
· Enrique Peñalosa, Bogota, Colombia
· Maria Elvira Perez, Colombia
· Rudolf Petersen, Wuppertal, Germany
· Stephen Plowden, London, UK
· Robert Poole, Los Angeles, CA
· Danijel Rebolj , Maribor, Slovenia
· Ernst Reichenbach, GTZ, Katmandu
· Michael A. Replogle, New York
· Gabriel Roth, Chevy Chase
· Preston Schiller, Bellingham, WA
· Lee Schipper, EMBARQ/World Resources Institute
· Bodo Schwieger, Berlin, Germany
· Derek Scrafton, Adelaide, Australia
· Dimitris Sermpis, Athens, Greece
· Leena Silfverberg, Helsinki, Finland
· Robert Smith, Dorset, UK
· Ivan Stanic, Ljubljana, Slovenia
· Linda Steg, Groningen, Netherlands
· Martin Strid, Borlange, Sweden
· Craig Townsend, Montréal, Canada
· Robert Stussi, Lisbon, Portugal
· Robert Thaler, Vienna, Austria
· Geetam Tiwari, New Delhi, India
· Tony Verelst, Zonhoven, Belgium
· Vukan Vuchic, Philadelphia, PA
· Conrad Wagner, Stans, Switzerland
· Bernie Wagenblast, Cranford, NJ
· Yngve Westerlund, Gothenburg, Sweden
· Dave Wetzel, London, UK
· John Whitelegg, Lancaster, UK
· Johnny Widen, Lulea, Sweden
· Peter Wiederkehr, Hamburg
· Roelof Wittink, Utrecht
· Kerry Wood, Wellington, New Zealand
· Guiping Xiao, Beijing. China
· Muhammad Younus, Karachi, Pakistan
· Christopher Zegras, Cambridge, MA
· Sue Zielinski, Toronto, Canada

Note: And by the way, I do not as yet have permissions to use most of these names.
· So if you are on the list and agree to participate in principal, please send me a quick note with your full title, contact information, etc. so that the sponsors can see just how distinguished this group is.
· Participation, by the way, being always a matter of your personal convenience with no requirements other than to indicate your interest to look in from time to time and if the circumstances move you to pitch in with comments and suggestions.
· Key question: Can we, together, handle such a large list and still get a meaningful “Voice”? Answer: We have managed to do so on a number of occasions in the past with no great problems. I am confident that we can to it now.

Do you have a nomination for another highly qualified authority/networker suitable and ready to help round out this fine list? I feel that despite the enormous quality of the group as it stands we are still a bit uncreatively short in the following areas: females, young people, people with mobility impediments, youth and school programs, and people struggling with genius and resolve with rural transport, in particular in the poorest parts of the world. We also could use more “point expertise” in the following areas: local government, land use planning, road pricing and economic instruments, human powered transport, local government and decision making, public space management, access for people with mobility impediments, techniques of low cost infrastructure modification, transport/environment interface, electronic substitutes for physical movement, behavioral psychology, public administration, economics, sociology, social work, law enforcement and policing, new techniques of micro-modeling, public outreach, genuinely participatory planning, much more emphasis on the interface with mobile telephony, taxis and paratransit, new media, and the list goes on.

How is this going to work? (Draft notes)

Quick Background:
· By way of quick reminder, here is what Principal Voices say about themselves: www.principalvoices.com - is an international project aimed at provoking discussion on some of the more compelling challenges confronting our world today. Over the next 12 months TIME, FORTUNE and CNN, in association with Shell, will be presenting a series of videos, articles and round-table discussions. Themes covered will include the environment, business innovation, economic development and transport.
· Further background on our proposed collective contribution to this potentially important project is being drafted and will be available shortly. (Draft notes follow below which are intended shortly to provide a fuller view of what we have in mind here.)
Notes on the Panel/Nominations:
· This panel does however, at least I hope, have a very definite common orientating – which is to sustainable development and social justice. And sustainable development, just to be sure that we are very clear on this, is not something that we can put on the back burner and wait for another day. It requires immediate, priority attention.
· Each of these people is a considerable personality in her/his own right, highly respected, known for the quality and independence of their views, and their brains, energy, accomplishments, long term commitment and ethics.
· They have very different backgrounds, experience, areas of expertise, and at times even visions of their sector and the future. To this extent they complement and enhance each other by their very differentness.
· These people understand that the task of making their voices heard in a world in which old ideas and practices often continue to hold the stage is not an easy one, and that success depends on their ability to deal with the challenges. They are accustomed to arguing their case in the face of considerable opposition and indifference, but they also are for the most part world level experts in listening (not always a strong point in a sector long dominated by people who had decided what was going to be best for the others).
· Each fully understands the full remit and complexity of the sector, and the fact that policies there must stretch far beyond the usual transport remit.
· They provide between them coverage of and sensitivity to the full reach of the complex interface between transport and its greater context. Important since well more than half the decisions and actions that need to be motivated to move toward a better transportation system come in fact from outside the traditional transport nexus.
· Tone of the exchanges: Informed, exploratory, caring, disputatious, and respectful (even when it hurts)
· Here by way of quick example are some of the fields they bring into the decision nexus, in addition to the more conventional transportation, engineering, planning, etc. skills: Land use planning, electronic substitutes for physical movement, human powered transport, local government and decision making, public space management, access for E&H, transport/environment interface, behavioral psychology, public administration, economics, law, policing, new techniques of micro-modeling, public outreach, genuinely participatory planning, much more emphasis on the interface with mobile telephony, new media, and the list goes on.
· The international coverage of the group is exemplary.
· We are making a special effort to secure a much higher proportion of female members than normally encountered in transport circles (notoriously male dominated... and that is a good part of their problem). As of end 2004 we were at about 15%. We have to do better.
· There are a fair number of young people – but we can try to do better.
· Another thing they have in common, a word that we do not hear all that often in the traditional transportation decision dialogues, is compassion. Important word.
· In some cases these individuals do have an institutional affiliation, in most cases institutions and groups which are well known for their independence of views. Moreover we have seen in virtually all cases over the years, these particular people have meticulously preserved their independent point of view and are given over to plain speaking and not varnishing or projection of a specific interest or point of view. In short, they are thoroughly ethical.
· In this context, the list is actually considerable longer than what you see here. In the interest of economy and efficiency we have made a practice of naming just one person per group or working cluster, in the knowledge that each will in turn work to ensure the participation of the others in their grouping.

Also:
· At the outset I had been targeting a considerably shorter list, but as a result of the feedback received in the last days from our lists and as the concept of what we perhaps should be targeting to do in this case, I became aware that it was going to be necessary to reach out in order to make sure that the full complexity and variety of the challenges of sustainable transport are properly covered. In the event, I see this as a dynamic, ever evolving group.
· I have decided (unless pushed to the contrary) to omit from this list all people with strong bureaucratic, institutional and economic ties and interests, and specifically proponents of unproven technologies and major infrastructure developments that are not fully and assiduously cross-checked with the full range of sustainability criteria).
· I intend to suggest that they invite the WBCSD “Sustainable Mobility’ team – or possibly some kind of composite voice which brings together the usually well orchestrated performances of such important entrenched forces such as the automotive and energy industry, and such generally concordant groups as the IEA, ECMT, IAA, and the various well placed lobbies -- to come in as the third major voice/vision of the sector. This means they can cover the interests of the auto and transportation industry, very long term stuff, big expensive infrastructure projects, the lurch toward things such as the hydrogen economy, and their list goes on.

Draft notes to be incorporated into final piece:


This will be a controlled debate and sometimes our chair (that’s me until we find someone better… which should not be hard) will cut off speakers, presenters who in his humble views are taking up too much of our valuable time and wondering a bit too far afield from our bottom line.

Why not include organizations such as the various concerned units of the EC, UITP, APTA, World Bank, UN and the list goes on and on as well as our outstanding individuals – well because of the kinds of divided minds and responsibilities that inevitably occur when anyone has to keep weighing their personal/professional views on the one hand and what the mother organization might have in mind or have to worry about. So we are sticking to individuals in this college.

Out: anything that can be covered by WBCSAD, unproven systems that require large investments and extensive, expensive and inevitably slow new infrastructure development

All have extensive international experience – especially US and UK, Sweden, Germany and a few others in which there are more than one person cited.

You may wish to note Geographic coverage to date: Here is a first indication by city name (roughly 90 thus far): Adelaide, Athens, Atlanta, Bangkok, Barcelona, Beijing, Beirut, Belleville, Berkeley, Berlin, Bilbao, Bogota, Borlange, Boston, Bremen, Brisbane, Bucharest, Budapest, Cambridge, Chevy Chase, Colombia, Colombo, Copenhagen, Dorset, Dubendorf, Dublin, Eveleigh, Exeter, Gothenburg, Groningen, Hanoi, Harare, Havana, Helsinki, Kanagawa　, Karachi, Katmandu, Kuala Lumpur, Kyoto, Lancaster, Le Vesinet, Leeds, Lima, Lisbonne, Ljubljana, London, Los Angeles, Lulea, Maribor, Mississauga, Monaco, Montréal, New Delhi, New York, Hamburg, Ottawa, Paramus, Paris, Perth, Philadelphia, Portland, Porto Alegre, Potenza, Prague, Pretoria, Pune, Quezon City, Reykjavik, Rome, Roskilde, Saint Louis, San Francisco, Scariff, Singapore, Stans, Stockholm, Surabaya, Sydney, Tel Aviv, Tokyo, Toronto, Utrecht, Victoria, Vienna, Warsaw, Washington D.C., Wellington, Wuppertal, Zapopan/Jalisco, Zonhoven

24.12.04. Don Corleone wants into carsharing: The Mafia & Sustainability

Editor's note:This one comes from a series that I scribbled on the occasion of the first World CarFree Day in 2001, published in the Grist magazine of the Earth Day Network. If it interests you enough, you can at the bottom of the article scroll to the other six in that week-long series.

Don Corleone wants into carsharing: The Mafia & Sustainability

Eric Britton is an international consultant, author, and founder of The Commons, a Paris-based nonprofit organization cosponsoring Earth Car Free Day.

Day One|Day Two|Day Three|Day Four|Day Five|Day Six| Day Seven

Friday, 23 Mar 2001,PARIS, France

The phone rattled once again, but this time it was a voice that I knew all too well. "It's me," the voice rasped, "Don Corleone" (as if I could forget that voice!).

"How's things going, Rico?" (Rico?)

And without waiting for an answer, he said, "Never mind. There's a limo outside waiting to bring you here, so just leave off whatever it is you are doing and get over here. I gotta talk to you about some of those car-sharing guys."

I had almost forgotten that the Don had shown so much interest in car-sharing, but I knew that he was into diversification these days. I'll never forget the first time I mentioned the word "car-sharing" and saw that he was frowning. It was more than a year ago. He asked me what it meant, and I tried to explain. (I told him this: Car-sharing is what you get when people stop using their own cars and instead use a shared vehicle whenever they need one. Think of it as a very handy short-term rent-a-car that is right around the corner and costs a lot less than owning your own car. It works best if you live in a city that has decent public transport. There are more than 500 cities around the world today where you can join a car-share club. (See www.worldcarshare.com for details.) Then I jabbered a lot about car-sharing being such a great idea because it represents a terrific first step toward decoupling the desire to use a car and the actual ownership of the car -- an important change toward a more sustainable transportation system. And on and on.

Now, the Don is not exactly what you would call "into sustainability," but he did stop me to ask if any of these guys, the 500 (or whatever it was) car-share operations in cities around the world, made any money at what they did. I said that some did and some didn't, but that the operations are starting to become more profitable as they gain more experience.

The Don seemed to like what he was hearing, which was not surprising because he always had liked international issues. After a long pause, he said, "Tell me something, Rico. How many cars do you think there are in the world? And how much do you think those stiffs pay to keep them on the road?"

Of course, I don't like giving the Don answers on anything like that without being able to check it out first by computer, but I took the risk and gave him some ballpark figures. I told him there were something like 700 million motor vehicles on the world's roads, that the annual growth rate of new cars on the road was approximately 7 to 10 percent, and that it cost something like $7,000 per year to cover all the costs, at least in the wealthier parts of the world.

The Don is fast. Without losing a minute, he said, "Hey! Have you ever multiplied those numbers together? 'Cause if you do, you are looking at a $5 trillion price tag. That's a lot of zeros And the whole pile is growing at 10 percent a year? But I need to know another thing, too. What part of the world market do you think those car-share guys could eventually get if they got their act together?"

I had never thought about that before. Let's see. Studies suggest that car-sharing becomes a serious economic option for city dwellers who drive less than 6,200 miles in one year. Other statistics suggest that, with wide regional variations, this also happens to be the average figure for annual car travel in many places. Putting these two together would suggest that perhaps in good time, as much as one-half of the entire world of car drivers might be candidates for car-sharing.

I had the Don's attention and I could see him juggling those numbers and smiling broadly at the same time. He said, "Rico, you've given me a pretty good idea here. I'm even starting to like you. The way I see it, if you think of car-sharing as a whole new business, it could account for up to one-half of all the money that people spend in the world car market — not only for the cars themselves but also for the insurance, parking (and we like parking), fuel, and all the rest. Let's round off. Call it $3 trillion a year. That's a number, ain't it? And I, the Don, want a piece of that market. A big piece!"

That was the last time I had seen the Don, until the phone rang last night. And as I was getting into his waiting stretch limo with the armor plating and one-way bullet-proof glass (the motor was running -- as I said, the Don is not really into sustainability), I tossed my laptop into the car, just in case he wanted more background on this car-sharing stuff. With the Don, it pays to get it right the first time.

When I arrived at the great house and entered between the snarling Doberman and the usual large gentlemen with the sunglasses, I found the Don waiting for me with a glass of wine. That was nice, but I still wondered what he had in mind.

"Rico," he said, "My boys tell me that you are doing a thing called Earth Car Free Day. Is that right?"

What could I say but, "Right, Don."

"And I hear that you have asked all those carsharing guys to come in and organize open houses to invite the public in, and in general cooperate with the big guys in their cities to make sure that the Day works out for you."

I replied, "Right again, Don."

Then he said, "So here's my question: How many of these guys have already signed on to do this? My boys tell me that things are going a little slowly."

"Well Don," I whined, "this sort of thing takes time. We have just recently asked them to get involved, and they have a lot of other things to do to keep their businesses running. But the first groups have already come in, and I am sure that we will have a number of others join in."

I have rarely seen the Don so mad. "A number of others?" he roared. "I want all of them. This is a trillion dollar business and we need to get moving on it. Tell them that the Don wants them in. Or else."

He was really angry, and I think that if you are running a car-share operation anywhere in the world, that you would do well to listen to the Don. He is famous for his long arms and short temper. And you can't say that I didn't warn you.

* * *

Day One |Day Two |Day Three |Day Four |Day Five |Day Six |Day Seven

Afterword: The good Don was also starred, with a bit of help from me, in a pretty funny 60 second video we made with a team for Shell in which we tried to sell the idea to them (successfully as it turned out since you can see their current and thriving first hands-on project at Shell Drive Deutschland in Düsseldorf at http://www.shelldrive.de/) . (I keep trying, thus far unsuccessfully, to get a copy of it for posting here. The fight continues. )

20/12. "Principal Voices": Making OUR voices heard

Monday, December 20, 2004, Paris, France, Europe

Source/Program: The New Mobility Agenda

-----Original Message-----

From: EcoPlan, Paris [mailto:eric.britton@ecoplan.org]
Sent: Monday, December 20, 2004 8:22 AM
To: 'New Mobility Cafe [NMC]'
Subject: Principal Voices: Making OUR voices heard

About Principal Voices: Principal Voices is an international project aimed at provoking discussion on some of the more compelling challenges confronting our world today. Over the next 12 months TIME, FORTUNE and CNN, in association with Shell, will be presenting a series of videos, articles and round-table discussions. Themes covered will include the environment, business innovation, economic development and transport. URL - http://www.principalvoices.com/

Today’s thought:
* Old Mobility: Congestion is the problem
* New Moblity: Congestion is (part of) the solution

Background:
Dave Wetzel and several others ask how the thousand or so active international transportation and environment experts that we are can make our voices heard in this forum. I have pondered this over the weekend and here are my best thoughts for you on this as the day breaks here in Paris:

1. I have proposed to the organizers that they add my name to their transportation component as a measure to ensure that the ‘New Mobility Agenda’ approach is also fairly represented… bearing in mind that the other ‘voice’ that they have selected as a representative of contemporary thinking and expertise in the sector is Mr. Ellatuvalapil Sreedharan “one of India's greatest civil engineers, the architect of the supposedly unbuildable Konkan Railway linking Mumbai and Mangalore, and, more recently, designer of the Delhi Metro system”. I think it is fair to say that this is one, primarily supply oriented, perspective, but that is at best only half of the story. My thought is that I can then act as a relay to ensure that our collective voices, principal too, are heard.

2. “Public Debates”. Over the next 12 months the sponsors will be presenting a series of four round-table discussions in cities across the world: (1) Singapore, February 2005, on the environment; (2) Beijing - May 2005 - Business Innovation; (3) London, July 2005, Economic Development; and (4) Mexico City, November 2005, Transport. Details at http://www.principalvoices.com/debates.html . I am not sure as to the details of organization, but you are invited to “take part” and ask a question as you will see at http://www.principalvoices.com/ask.html.

Otherwise, it all looks the usual pretty hermetic managed “debate” to me, but that often is the case in the world where the old mobility values continue to dominate. (I will shortly share a page with you on what I believe to be the main difference between these two schools, these two ages actually of thought and practice in our field). But perhaps we can at the very least keep an eye on them, even if they do not agree to any form of more direct participation, and share our views here. Hopefully however good sense will reign and they will welcome us all in as active parts of the solution.

Your comments and suggestions are as always more than welcome.

Eric Britton
The New Mobility Agenda


About The Commons Open Society Sustainability Initiative: Seeking out and supporting new sustainability concepts for business, entrepreneurs, activists, community groups, and government; a thorn in the side of hesitant administrators and politicians; and through our joint efforts, energy and personal choices, placing them and ourselves firmly on the path to a more sustainable and more just society.

19/12. Our Loeb Fellowship Program Nomination for 2005

From: Personal activity under The Commons

Today I had a chance to nominate another deserving person for one of the prestigious Loeb Fellowships at Harvard for the doming academic year. I very much enjoy being able to do this sort of thing because I believe that one of the major contributions someone with my concerns and networks can make in this beleaguered planet is exactly that: to spot outstanding people and programs that are getting some things right and then make them better known. And to the extent to which I can find various forms of support for them.

Just in case you don't know and are curious, I would invite you to have a look at the Loeb Web site at http://www.gsd.harvard.edu/professional/loeb_fellowship/. It just may give you some ideas.

And as always, we are on the lookout for exceptionally creative people in their respective fields, with an ability to transcend traditional boundaries, willingness to take risks, persistence in the face of personal and conceptual obstacles, capacity to synthesize disparate ideas and approaches. In short to do whatever it takes to make a difference and through their brains, energy and perseverance advance the sustainability agenda in their own chosen corner of the world.

Do you have a candidate for us for this or any of the other programs that we have the privilege to be able to advise or suggest? We are especially interested in hearing from you about creative people who are bold and risk taking – including mavericks and others who work outside of conventional reward systems. If you have any candidates for us, please let us know. (And who should know better than you?)

Eric Britton

The Commons: Increasing the uncomfort zone for hesitant administrators and politicians; pioneering new concepts for business, entrepreneurs, activists, community groups, and local government; and through our joint efforts, energy and personal choices, placing them and ourselves firmly on the path to a more sustainable and more just society.



Loeb Program Overview

The Loeb Fellowship was established in 1970 through the generosity of the late John L. Loeb, Harvard College '24. Based at the Graduate School of Design, the program offers ten annual postprofessional awards for independent study at Harvard. Through the Fellowship, participants have access to the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, the Graduate School of Design, the Graduate School of Education, Harvard Business School, Harvard College, Harvard Divinity School, Harvard Law School, the Kennedy School of Government, and M.I.T.

The Fellowship is a unique opportunity to nurture the leadership potential of the most promising men and women in design and other professions related to the built and natural environment. It enhances the excellence of the GSD by exposing students to some of the most exciting midcareer professionals in their fields. John Loeb realized this potential when he endowed the Loeb Fellowship to fill a special place in American education: one that would greatly increase the practical effectiveness of the design professions. Now entering its fourth decade, with over 300 alumni, the Fellowship has made substantial progress toward that goal.

We invite you to explore the Loeb Fellowship Web Site. Please check on the current Loeb Fellowship Events and see what is planned on our calendar. You may read about our Current Fellows or visit some of the Loeb Sponsored Sites. You may also use the Loeb Links to connect to several useful Harvard informational sources related to the Loeb Fellowship's academic pursuit. Fellowship Application Information is also available on-line.

18/12. World Bank on Dhaka transport and non-motorised transport

From Sustran and the New Mobility Cafe

I am forwarding this pair of exchanges to our freinds and Sustran and New Mobility café not because there are necessarily so many rickshaws on the streets of many other parts of the world outside of Asia, but rather because it serves as a telling reminder that our future in virtually all cities is going to lie in being our able to create and then concatenate and coordinate many different kinds of carriers. Until now we have been in most places hapless victims of what might be called the old public transport monopoly and mind set, which clearly is not enough.

We can learn a great deal by looking at these less familiar situations and stretching our minds. Or so I would claim.

Eric Britton


-----Original Message-----
On Behalf Of karl@dnet.net.id
Sent: Saturday, December 11, 2004 2:14 PM
To: Asia and the Pacific sustainable transport

Dear all,

The whole premise of this argument that rickshaws have to be banned to improve the bus system is disingenuous, firstly in suggesting that the DUTP has been genuinely focusing on bus system improvements (they haven't), and secondly in suggesting that it is not possible to accommodate high volumes of buses and rickshaws in the same main corridors (it is).

I reviewed the DUTP bus recommendations and they were quite weak. Their main thrust was to try to promote a few new 'premium', air-con routes while there was no attention given to on-street bus priority, bus stop design, or how to design corridors to accommodate both NMT and high volumes of buses. The only bus system recommendation of the DUTP actually implemented had no impact on the bus system. It was route tendering pilot which was not seriously bid for and which the 'winner' will not operate.

I talked to the directors of one new private bus operator. They have several routes, and all are profitable except for one. Which one? The NMT free route from Uttara to Motijheel. The main reason for the loss? Severe congestion. So does making the road NMT free solve congestion?? Operating speeds for buses on this 'NMT free' route are often less than 10km/hr.

The claim that rickshaws are the main gripe of the bus operators are not true according to my recent experience there. I spoke to directors of both of the new major new bus operators in the city. They have many concerns, the most serious of which is the poor operating conditions caused by congestion (especially on the rickshaw free route mentioned above), difficulties in licensing / permits, a 'fare war', and other issues. Of course there are many conflicts between buses and rickshaws, but also between buses and every other mode given the total lack of priority for buses in Dhaka.

The claim that bus operators are 'standing by' waiting for the government to ban rickshaws is also untrue in my view. There is a lot that can be done to improve bus services in Dhaka and there is absolutely no reason that high volumes of buses and high volumes of rickshaws cannot operate in the same corridor. Kunming provides a good example of high volumes of buses & NMT in the same street. Instead of talking about 'nmt free' what they should do is come up with good designs to accommodate the high volumes of rickshaws, as well as measures to better regulate rickshaws. If they need to ban anything from congested corridors, start with private cars (used for only a very small percentage of trips in Dhaka).

So don't be misled; it's not about buses. I worked on bus system improvements in Dhaka and the Dhaka Transport Coordination Board (under the previous executive director; maybe things have changed with the very recent appointment of a new ED) showed no interest in the topic. They want a metro and elevated road network. As for the real reason for this preoccupation with NMT free roads being driven by a few WB staff against a generally reluctant mayor and transport minister: it seems to be part of the general transport planning preoccupation of the DUTP in Dhaka which has been to improve the flow of traffic for the small minority of people using cars (around 7 people out of 1000 in Dhaka own a car; the 993 others don't) regardless of the consequences for the very large majority who are walking, using rickshaws, or using buses.

The good news, though, is that it is not too late to change this. Dhaka still has a huge majority of people using the 'sustainable' modes of buses, walking, and rickshaws, and most of the NMT bans have not yet been implemented. One of the very recent studies under the DUTP has recommended Bus Rapid Transit combined with rickshaws - including on the main arterials, not just as feeders to the BRT - and pedestrian facility improvements. The WB staff involved on their part have to their credit been open to receiving feedback on the 'NMT free' policy in Dhaka and shown a willingness to engage in a dialogue on it.


regards, Karl Fjellstrom

***************************

Sent: Saturday, December 11, 2004 1:07 PM To: Sustran List Subject: [sustran] World Bank on Dhaka transport

Here is the World Bank position on Non Motorized Transport in Dhaka. Any comments? --Jonathan

Summary of NMT strategy under DUTP

A fundamental component of the strategy to improve traffic conditions and circulation in Dhaka under the Dhaka Urban Transport Project (DUTP) is the segregation of motorized and non-motorized traffic. This is achieved through the creation of a network of NMT-free arterial roads, where existing road space does not allow the physical separation of slow and fast moving modes of traffic within the existing roadway.

In January 2003 , the Dhaka Transport Coordination Board (DTCB) approved a network of 120km of main roads (about 6% of the total city network) from which it was proposed that NMT would be progressively restricted over the period up to December 2005. This core network is intended to provide for more efficient operation of motorized traffic, in particular, public transport services. It will also improve road safety for all modes. Integrated improvements on six corridors (about 50 km) within this network are funded under the Bank assisted DUTP.

An initial section of the arterial network was improved under the project and converted to NMT-free operation in December 2002, following a social assessment and stakeholder consultations. This 'demonstration' corridor (Mirpur Road - Gabtali-Russell Square) continues to operate NMT-free and is generally adjudged to have been a success, with higher vehicle operating speeds, increased numbers of buses operating and a reduction in the number of reported road accidents. The traffic police have been supportive and it has proved possible to operate traffic signals successfully over the past 24 months, with increased driver compliance and understanding in an NMT-free environment. No additional sections of the NMT-free network have been introduced since December 2002.

A comprehensive and in-depth impact study of both users and rickshaw pullers was undertaken by DTCB in mid-2004 through independent consultants to assess the overall impact of the conversion. Key results indicate that few difficulties have been experienced by users and that journey times in the corridor have been dramatically improved. The majority of users support the decision to move to NMT-free operations, as this reduced travel time by about 30% (8-10 minutes) per trip. Commuters using walking and buses reduced their transport cost, but it increased for others. There is a shortage of buses on the corridor, since bus owners do not find it commercially viable to ply modern large buses unless the total artery (Gabtoli-Azimpur-Press club) is made NMT-free. Reduced incomes were reported for rickshaw pullers as a result of the restrictions: those interviewed requested that Government provide some form of rehabilitation for rickshaw pullers prior to the introduction of the ban on NMT. BRAC (a leading NGO) is currently working with DTCB on the design of an appropriate safety net.

This approach has now been mainstreamed by the Government of Bangladesh in the National Land Transport Policy which was adopted in early 2004, after a fairly extensive consultation and review process. The Policy includes under Section 9: Policies for Dhaka

9.2 Non-motorized transport

9.2.1 A progressive ban on the use of rickshaws on major arterial roads will be continued. Rickshaws will be allowed to cross such roads from and to minor side roads at selected crossings.

9.2.3 To encourage rickshaw use in suburban areas, where the bus network is less dense and/or frequent, as feeder services to the bus network.

Survey and stakeholder consultations on the proposed next sections of the NMT-free corridor (the remainder of the Mirpur Road Corridor (Russell Square-Azimpur) and New Elephant Road) were completed in March 2004 through the Bangladesh Transport Federation. These indicate that if adequate and women friendly bus services are available and pavements are cleared and made secure, taking buses/walking would not create additional hardship for daily commuters, especially women as their commuting cost and time will be reduced by motorized transport. Separate interviews with bus operators indicated a strong support for the concept of expanding the network of NMT-free roads. It is evident that additional private operators are waiting and are willing to introduce additional new services on NMT-free corridors: the increased operating speeds make services financially attractive . The slow extension of the NMT-free network has resulted in some bus operators deferring their expansion plans.

DTCB had originally proposed to convert these next to NMT-free operation in November 2003. This was subsequently deferred (now planned for Dec 2004). The Bank has requested that in order to fully benefit from the transport infrastructure investments made under the DUTP, the next phase of the NMT-free network be initiated without further delay.

The Bank has also been emphasizing the importance of developing a network of parallel or complementary routes that can be used by NMT in order to mitigate the impact of the progressive restrictions on NMT using the main arterial network. The July 04 supervision mission was provided with a phased programme for the continued expansion of the NMT-free network, together with a proposed comprehensive network for NMT, some new dedicated NMT roads (or lanes), and a series of proposed NMT crossing points of the NMT-free arterial network. The mission stressed the importance of these alternative complimentary measures for NMT: in particular the provision of NMT crossing points of the arterial network have been consistently requested by representatives of NMT operators. Some 20 km of complementary NMT road sections and NMT parking areas associated with these arterial corridors, along with NMT-friendly junction redesigns and traffic signalling have been financed under the project.

-----

Jonathan E. D. Richmond 02 524-5510 (office) Visiting Fellow Intl.: 662 524-5510 Urban Environmental Management program, School of Environment, Resources and Development Room N260B 02 524-8257 (home) Asian Institute of Technology Intl.: 662 524-8257 PO Box 4 Klong Luang, Pathumthani 12120 02 524-5509 (fax) Thailand Intl: 662 524-5509

e-mail: richmond@ait.ac.th Secretary: Kuhn Vantana Pattanakul richmond@alum.mit.edu 02 524-6368 Intl: 662 524-6132 http://the-tech.mit.edu/~richmond/