28 December 2004

28/12. The Future Isn't What It Used To Be: Changing Trends And Their Implications For Transport Planning

Source/Program: New Mobility Agenda

Dear Colleagues,

I'm writing to let you know about our latest draft publication, "The Future Isn't What It Used To Be: Changing Trends And Their Implications For Transport Planning" (http://www.vtpi.org/future.pdf

This paper examines various demographic, economic and market trends that affect travel demand, and their implications for transport planning during the next century. During Twentieth Century per capita motor vehicle travel demand increased by an order of magnitude. Many of the factors that caused this growth have peaked in developed countries and are likely to decline. This indicates that future transport demand will be increasingly diverse. Transport planning can reflect these shifts by reducing emphasis on automobile travel and increasing support for alternative modes and smart growth development patterns.I would appreciate your feedback.

Please let me know if you find any errors or omissions, or if you have any other ideas of factors that affect past and future travel demand. Also, please let me know if you know a source of good time-series shipping cost data, such as the real cost of transporting a ton of freight from New York to London or San Francisco for each decade from 1900 to 2000.

Sincerely,Todd Litman,
Director
Victoria Transport Policy Institute"Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"
1250 Rudlin StreetVictoria, BC, V8V 3R7, Canada
Phone & Fax: +1 250-360-1560
Email: litman@vtpi.org
Website: http://www.vtpi.org/

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